CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2015-11-04T14:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-11-04T14:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9643/-1
CME Note: CME is connected to a M3.7 flare at AR 12443 very close to disk center, GOES light curve is a long duration event, with extensive post-event loops visible in AIA 131. Large, fast wave emanating from flare site, dimming to the west and north of the AR in AIA 193, dark absorption material ejected at west end of AR seen in AIA 304
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-11-06T17:34Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0
Dst min. in nT: -87
Dst min. time: 2015-11-07T08:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-11-07T15:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note: 
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2015 Nov 05 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 05-Nov 07 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 05-Nov 07 2015

            Nov 05     Nov 06     Nov 07
00-03UT        3          3          3     
03-06UT        2          2          2     
06-09UT        4          2          2     
09-12UT        3          2          2     
12-15UT        2          1          3     
15-18UT        2          2          4     
18-21UT        2          2          5 (G1)
21-00UT        3          2          5 (G1)

Rationale: G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely late in the day on day
three (07 Nov) as the partial halo CME from 04 Nov is expected to arrive
at Earth.
Lead Time: 38.20 hour(s)
Difference: -21.43 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-11-05T03:22Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement